If you’re looking at the Austin market today, the word of the week is leverage. For the first time in years, the “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO) has been replaced by the “Power of Negotiation.”
1. The Numbers: Prices and Inventory
As of February 20, 2026, the Austin-area MLS shows a market that is cooling but stable.
- Median Sold Price: Currently sits at $430,000, which is approximately 21.8% below the May 2022 peak.
- Inventory Levels: There are over 13,400 active residential properties, resulting in 4.7 months of inventory. This places the region firmly in a “Neutral to Buyer Advantage” zone.
- The 50% Rule: Roughly 48.4% of all active listings have undergone at least one price drop, showing that sellers are finally adjusting to the new reality of a 90-day average “time on market.”
2. Infrastructure: Paving the Way for 2027
The region is currently in the middle of a massive construction “surge” aimed at handling the population growth of the last decade.
- Austin Light Rail: On February 18, the Austin Transit Partnership selected Austin Rail Constructors (ARC) for a multibillion-dollar contract to build the first 10-mile phase of the light rail. Construction is slated to begin in 2027.
- I-35 Capital Express: Permanent closures of the northbound Riverside Drive exit and Holly Street ramps began this month as TxDOT prepares to reconstruct the bridges over Lady Bird Lake.
- Williamson County Expansion: Ground was officially broken on RM 2243 (Phase 1a), which will widen the road between 183A and Garey Park in Leander, a major win for Northwest Austin commuters.
3. Employment: Tech Layoffs vs. Industrial Hiring
The “Silicon Hills” are seeing a structural shift in the labor market.
- The Layoff Wave: February has been tough for tech. Expedia announced 100 layoffs at its Domain office, and Intel reported another 110 job cuts in Austin. These are part of a broader trend of companies reallocating resources toward AI and hardware.
- Industrial Momentum: On a brighter note, Samsung’s Taylor Fab has received temporary occupancy for its first buildings. With 7,000 workers currently on-site, the economic “halo effect” is starting to boost local services and rental demand in Taylor and Hutto.
4. Mortgage Rates: The 6% Ceiling
Borrowing costs remain “sticky” but have retreated from their 2024 highs.
- Current Rates: As of February 22, 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage in Texas is 6.13%, while the 15-year fixed sits at 5.44%.
- Forecast: Experts expect rates to hover between 5.9% and 6.2% for the remainder of the year as the Federal Reserve waits for inflation to settle further.
5. New Subdivisions & Demographics
Development is moving to the “outer ring” where affordability still exists.
- Affordable Entries: Builders like DRB Homes are advertising new communities in Elgin (Creeks Crossing) and Jarrell (Calumet) with starting prices in the mid-to-high $260s.
- Dripping Springs Growth: David Weekley Homes is launching two major executive-series communities, Caliterra and Headwaters 60’, catering to families seeking the Hill Country lifestyle and top-tier school districts.
- Migration Shift: Domestic migration to Austin has slowed to its lowest rate in a decade (under 2% annual growth), but international migration now makes up nearly 50% of the area’s new residents, diversifying the buyer pool.
The Bottom Line
Austin is no longer a “get rich quick” market for sellers. It is now a long-term hold market. For buyers, the combination of widespread price drops, builder incentives (like “Flex Cash”), and stabilizing mortgage rates makes this the most approachable entry point since 2019.