As we reach the midpoint of 2025, Travis County’s residential real estate market continues to evolve under the pressure of interest rates, supply shifts, and changing buyer behavior. In this blog post, we’ll analyze key market indicators for June 2025 and compare them with the same month in 2024 and 2023, highlighting year-over-year trends across median sale prices, inventory levels, closed sales, and more.
Let’s dive into the analysis.
1. Year-Over-Year Comparison for June
| Metric | June 2025 | June 2024 | June 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sales Price | $525,000 | $525,000 | $550,000 |
| Closed Sales | 1,238 | 1,210 | 1,482 |
| Sales Volume (B) | $0.899B | $0.842B | $1.07B |
| Months of Inventory | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.0 |
| New Listings | 2,280 | 2,122 | 2,381 |
| Active Listings | 7,284 | 6,819 | 4,724 |
Key Observations:
- Median prices held steady from 2024 to 2025, but still trail the 2023 levels by 4.5%.
- Sales activity remains slightly higher than last year, suggesting stabilized demand.
- Inventory remains elevated — now 45% higher than 2023 — which continues to pressure prices and elongate selling times.
2. Median Sales Price Trend
After peaking in mid-2022 ($659,000 in May), median home prices in Travis County have trended downward. By June 2025, the median price stabilized at $525,000, down 20.3% from the 2022 high but flat compared to 2024.
This plateau suggests the market may have found a new equilibrium as sellers adjust expectations and buyers return cautiously with higher borrowing costs.
3. Months of Inventory Trend
Inventory tells the story of a significant market shift:
- In June 2022, Travis County had just 2.0 months of inventory — a classic seller’s market.
- By June 2023, inventory rose to 4.0 months.
- In both June 2024 and 2025, inventory is at 5.8 months, pushing into balanced-to-buyer’s market territory.
Rising inventory over the past three years indicates that homes are staying on the market longer, competition among sellers has increased, and buyers have more options and negotiating power.
4. Closed Sales Trend
Closed sales saw a peak in early 2022 and have generally been declining or stagnating since:
- June 2022: 1,576
- June 2023: 1,482
- June 2024: 1,210
- June 2025: 1,238
Although 2025 shows a modest recovery from 2024, it’s still 21.5% below the June 2022 peak. This aligns with national trends of slower market velocity due to affordability issues and elevated mortgage rates.
5. New Listings Trend
New listings follow a seasonal pattern but have shown relative consistency in recent years:
- June 2022: 2,995
- June 2023: 2,381
- June 2024: 2,122
- June 2025: 2,280
Listings in June 2025 are slightly up from 2024 but still 24% below 2022 levels. Sellers may be holding back either due to “rate lock-in” (not wanting to give up a low mortgage rate) or expectations of a softening market.
Conclusion: Signs of Stabilization in a Cooled Market
The Travis County real estate market appears to be stabilizing in mid-2025 after a dramatic cooldown from its pandemic-era highs. Prices have flattened year-over-year, but remain well below 2022 peaks. Inventory remains high, continuing to give buyers more leverage than they had just a couple of years ago.
The market is not in freefall — rather, it reflects a rebalancing toward more normal conditions. As mortgage rates and macroeconomic conditions evolve, we may see further price adjustments, or perhaps a mild rebound if demand strengthens and inventory starts to taper.
For buyers, the current environment offers negotiation power and selection. For sellers, strategic pricing and patience are key.
If you have any questions or need any assistance in finding your new home or investment property, please contact me and I will be more than happy to work with you. You can read my client testimonials here.
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