The Williamson County housing market continues to evolve as rising inventory, shifting buyer demand, and moderating prices reshape the landscape. Using data from the Austin Board of REALTORS® MLS for 2022–2025, this analysis provides a comprehensive look at how the market is performing today and where key trends indicate it may be heading.
1. Year-Over-Year Comparison (October 2025 vs. 2024 vs. 2023)
Median Sales Price
- October 2025: $414,000
- October 2024: $420,000
- October 2023: $424,990
The median price is down -1.4% from last year and -2.6% from two years ago. This signals continued gradual price softening as inventory expands and competition among sellers increases.
Closed Sales
- October 2025: 782
- October 2024: 807
- October 2023: 844
Closed sales decreased -3.1% year-over-year and are -7.4% below 2023 levels. This decline reflects cooler buyer activity amid affordability pressures and higher months of inventory.
Months of Inventory
- October 2025: 5.0 months
- October 2024: 4.2 months
- October 2023: 3.2 months
Inventory has risen significantly, moving Williamson County closer to a balanced market. Compared to last year, inventory is up +19%, and compared to 2023, it’s up more than +56%. Buyers now have more negotiating power than at any time in the past three years.
New Listings
- October 2025: 1,144
- October 2024: 1,028
- October 2023: 985
New listings increased +11.3% from last year and +16.2% from 2023, adding to the swelling inventory. More sellers are entering the market, even as sales remain relatively soft.
Active Listings
- October 2025: 4,146
- October 2024: 3,369
- October 2023: 2,786
Active listings jumped +23% compared to last year and nearly +49% since 2023. This is one of the strongest indicators of a shifting market, as supply has outpaced demand for several consecutive years.
2. Median Sale Price Trend (2022–2025)
Median home prices in Williamson County have followed a three-phase trend:
- 2022: Prices peaked, reaching the $500K range early in the year.
- 2023: Prices declined sharply, bottoming around the low-to-mid $400Ks.
- 2024: Prices remained relatively flat, stabilizing between $420K–$435K.
- 2025: The downward pressure has resumed, with prices fluctuating around $400K–$435K and trending slightly weaker than 2024.
The current softness is primarily driven by growing supply, higher inventory levels, and buyers’ increased ability to negotiate.
3. Months of Inventory Trend
Inventory has expanded dramatically:
- 2022: A strong seller’s market with 0.3–3.2 months of inventory.
- 2023: Inventory rose slightly, averaging 2.4–3.3 months.
- 2024: A sharp jump into 3.2–4.4 months.
- 2025: Inventory reached 5.0–5.5 months, approaching true market balance.
This multi-year rise demonstrates a clear structural shift. Williamson County is no longer the ultra-tight, fast-moving market of 2020–2022. Instead, it is now trending toward equilibrium, giving buyers more choice, more negotiating power, and more time to make decisions.
4. Closed Sales Trend
Closed sales show a cooling pattern:
- 2022: Very strong (700–1,200+ closings per month).
- 2023: Declines across most months.
- 2024: Sales remained soft but stable.
- 2025: Monthly sales are improving slightly from early-year lows but remain below 2022–2024 norms.
Overall, closed sales have not kept pace with rising inventory. Demand remains healthy but subdued compared with the boom years, especially as affordability pressures persist.
5. New Listings Trend
New listings have grown steadily over the past four years:
- 2022: High listing activity tied to rapid market shifts.
- 2023: Slight reduction in new listings.
- 2024: A return to elevated levels, especially in spring and summer.
- 2025: Strongest year yet, with monthly new listings consistently surpassing prior years.
This influx of new inventory is a major contributor to the higher months of inventory and softening prices.
Conclusion
The Williamson County real estate market has transitioned from a heated seller’s market into a more balanced—and in some segments, buyer-leaning—environment. Prices are showing mild year-over-year declines, inventory continues to rise, and closed sales have slowed. Sellers face greater competition, requiring realistic pricing and strong presentation to attract qualified buyers. On the other hand, buyers benefit from more choices, less bidding pressure, and improved negotiating leverage.
As the market continues into late 2025, expect conditions to remain stable but more favorable to buyers unless demand strengthens significantly. The long-term fundamentals of Williamson County remain strong, yet the rapid appreciation of past years has clearly cooled, giving the market room to reset and normalize.
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