The real estate landscape in Austin and Central Texas has undergone a remarkable transformation over the past four years. From the record-breaking highs of 2022 to a more stabilized and balanced environment in early 2026, understanding these trends is crucial for both buyers and sellers. Based on the latest data from the Austin ABoR MLS, let’s dive into the key metrics shaping our market today.
1. Year-Over-Year Snapshot: March Comparison
To understand where we are, we must look at where we’ve been. Comparing March 2026 to the same month in previous years reveals a clear cooling trend in prices but a stabilizing volume in transactions.
| Metric | March 2026 | March 2025 | March 2024 |
| Median Sales Price | $426,220 | $446,000 | $450,000 |
| Closed Sales | 2,593 | 2,461 | 2,563 |
| Months of Inventory | 5.5 | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| New Listings | 5,009 | 5,142 | 4,714 |
While the median price has dipped by approximately 4.4% since last year and 5.3% since 2024, the number of closed sales in March 2026 actually saw a slight increase compared to the previous two years, suggesting that demand remains resilient despite price adjustments.
2. Median Sale Price: The Road to Stabilization
The Austin market reached a fever pitch in mid-2022, with median sales prices peaking at $550,000 in April and May. Since that peak, we have seen a gradual “right-sizing” of home values.
The current March 2026 median price of $426,220 represents a significant decrease from the 2022 highs. However, the data suggests the market is finding a new floor. After a dip to $400,495 in January 2026, prices have begun their typical seasonal climb, showing that while the era of hyper-appreciation has paused, the market remains active and valuable.
3. Months of Inventory: From Scarcity to Choice
Perhaps the most dramatic shift in the data is the Months of Inventory (MOI). In early 2022, the market was in a state of extreme scarcity, with MOI as low as 0.4 months—meaning homes were selling almost as fast as they were listed.
Fast forward to 2026, and the story has changed. March 2026 sits at 5.5 months of inventory. Generally, a “balanced” market is considered to be around 6 months. This transition from a sub-1-month supply to over 5 months is a massive win for buyers, offering more leverage, more time to make decisions, and more options to choose from.
4. Closed Sales: Seasonal Resilience
Closed sales continue to follow a predictable seasonal rhythm, peaking in the spring and summer months (May/June) and dipping in the winter.
Interestingly, March 2026’s total of 2,593 sales is higher than the 2,461 recorded in March 2025. This suggests that despite higher inventory levels and adjusted prices, buyers are still finding their way to the closing table. The sales dollar volume has remained steady at around $1.47 billion for the month, indicating a healthy level of total market activity.
5. New Listings: A Steady Stream of Opportunity
The market’s health is often dictated by the flow of new inventory. In March 2026, 5,009 new listings hit the market. While this is a slight decrease from the 5,142 listings in March 2025, it is significantly higher than the 4,150 listings seen during the inventory-starved March of 2022.
The consistent influx of new listings (averaging over 5,000 in peak months) has been the primary driver in building up the active inventory to its current level of 10,867 homes. This steady supply is what has allowed the “Months of Inventory” to climb, finally providing the relief that Central Texas buyers have sought for years.
Conclusion
The Austin and Central Texas real estate market has officially exited the “frenzy” phase of 2022 and entered a period of balanced stabilization. While median prices have softened from their all-time highs, the increase in inventory to 5.5 months and the resilience in closed sales suggest a much healthier, more sustainable environment. For buyers, the current market offers the best selection and leverage seen in years. For sellers, pricing strategy and property presentation have become more critical than ever. As we move further into 2026, the market appears to be settling into a new “normal” that rewards patience and informed decision-making.
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